Betting on the NFL is one of the most exciting and strategic forms of sports wagering, attracting millions of bettors every season. Whether you’re new to the scene or a seasoned bettor, success in NFL betting depends on understanding the game, the betting market, and maintaining a disciplined approach. To help you make more informed decisions, here are five key things to know when betting on NFL games.
1. Understanding the Betting Lines
The first essential step in NFL betting is understanding the different types of bets and how betting lines work. The most common NFL bets are the point spread, moneyline, and over/under.
- The point spread is designed to level the playing field between two teams by assigning a certain number of points that the favorite must win by to “cover the spread.” For example, if the Dallas Cowboys are -5.5 favorites, they must win by 6 points or more for a bet on them to be successful. Conversely, if you bet on the underdog at +5.5, that team can either win the game outright or lose by 5 points or fewer for your bet to win.
- A moneyline bet is a straightforward wager on which team will win the game outright, with odds reflecting each team’s chances. Favorites will have a negative moneyline (e.g., -180), meaning you need to bet $180 to win $100, while underdogs have a positive line (e.g., +150), meaning a $100 bet would net you $150 if the underdog wins.
- The over/under (total points) bet is a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined. For example, if the over/under is set at 47.5, you’re betting on whether the final combined score will be more or less than 47 points.
When betting, it’s critical to shop for the best lines across multiple sportsbooks, as a slight difference in odds or spread can have a significant impact on your long-term profitability. Comparing odds between sportsbooks can also help you find better value, giving you an edge over the market.
2. Home-Field Advantage Isn’t as Powerful as You Think
While home-field advantage used to be a major factor in NFL games, its impact has diminished in recent years. Many bettors still overvalue home teams, assuming that playing at home gives a team a significant edge. However, modern teams are better equipped to handle travel, and improvements in game preparation and technology have minimized the advantage that home teams once enjoyed.
That said, there are still a few teams and stadiums where home-field advantage remains strong. Places like Seattle’s Lumen Field, where crowd noise makes communication difficult, or Denver’s Mile High Stadium, where the altitude affects players’ stamina, can still play a significant role in game outcomes. It’s important to assess each matchup individually rather than relying on generalizations about home teams.
Instead of overemphasizing home-field advantage, focus on the quality of the teams, recent form, and situational factors like travel distance, short weeks, or rest. These elements often provide more insight into how a game might unfold than simply looking at where the game is being played.
3. Injuries and Depth Charts Can Change the Game
Injuries are a critical part of NFL betting and can drastically alter the outcome of a game. Losing a star player like a quarterback or a key defensive player can shift a team’s entire game plan and greatly affect the betting line. That’s why it’s important to stay on top of injury reports leading up to game day.
Injuries don’t just affect the starting lineup—they can also expose weaknesses in a team’s depth. For example, a team may be able to survive the loss of a starting running back if they have a capable backup, but if injuries decimate their offensive line, the entire offense can struggle. When analyzing games, don’t just look at whether key players are injured—evaluate the depth of the team as well and how they might compensate for those losses.
Paying attention to last-minute injury updates is critical, as sportsbooks will often adjust lines based on this information. If you follow along with Doc’s NFL predictions, you’ll see that these factors play an important role. By keeping an eye on injuries, you can find betting opportunities before the lines fully reflect the changes, giving you an edge.
4. Weather Can Impact Game Outcomes
Weather is a factor that is often overlooked but can have a major impact on NFL games. Conditions like wind, rain, snow, or extreme temperatures can change the dynamics of a game, affecting everything from passing and kicking to the overall pace of play.
Wind, in particular, is one of the most influential weather factors. High winds can disrupt a team’s passing game and make long field goals nearly impossible, leading to lower overall scoring. Rain and snow can make the field slippery, leading to more dropped passes, turnovers, and a greater reliance on the running game. Cold temperatures, while uncomfortable, tend to have a smaller effect, though they can stiffen up players and make the ball harder to catch or kick.
When betting on outdoor games, especially in northern cities during the winter months, always check the weather forecast. If wind or rain is expected, it might be wise to bet the under on total points or look for value in rushing yard props as teams shift away from the passing game.
5. Bankroll Management Is Key to Long-Term Success
No matter how knowledgeable you are about NFL teams and games, managing your bankroll is essential for long-term betting success. Even the most successful bettors go through losing streaks, and without proper bankroll management, it’s easy to go bust during a bad run.
A common approach is flat betting, where you bet the same amount on each game, regardless of how confident you feel. This method helps avoid the temptation of making large, risky bets in an attempt to chase losses. Typically, bettors will wager 1-2% of their total bankroll on any given game. For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll, your standard bet might be $10 to $20 per game.
Sticking to a disciplined bankroll strategy ensures that you can withstand the inevitable ups and downs of NFL betting. Avoid increasing your bet size after a loss or placing emotional bets—long-term success in NFL betting comes from making steady, well-researched wagers and managing your money wisely.
Conclusion
Betting on the NFL offers plenty of opportunities, but it requires a mix of knowledge, strategy, and discipline. Understanding how betting lines work, not overvaluing home-field advantage, keeping up with injury reports, accounting for weather, and managing your bankroll are all key to making smart bets. By taking these factors into account, you can increase your chances of finding value in the NFL betting market and building long-term success.
